“Very Good, Longtime Workers”

If you’re a fan of President Trump’s immigration policies, his newly signed “Big Beautiful Bill” is Christmas in July. If you’re not a fan, it’s your worst nightmare.  

The reason? The budget for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the new legislation has increased dramatically, giving the administration far more firepower and leeway to execute its sweeping immigration crackdown. New detention centers received $45 billion in funding, a 250 percent increase over its current budget. The $30 billionnow earmarked for immigration enforcement and deportations is a threefold increase over prior levels. President Trump’s border wall construction is getting more than $45 billion in funding, more than three times what was spent in the first Trump administration. 

In other words, prepare for versions of Alligator Alcatraz to start popping up across the country, as President Trump has indicated is his wish. 

There was a great analysis about the partisan divide over immigration written in late June by Martin Gurri, a writer for The Free Press. He is a legal immigrant of Cuban descent and spoke out against the protests in Los Angeles, saying that both the far left and far right are misguided on how they think and talk about immigration, its flaws, and its promises. 

“The Democrats have come to treat illegality as a test of anti-racist virtue,” Gurri wrote. “The MAGA crowd looks on it as an ‘invasion’ to be repelled by the terrible swift sword of the state, including, if need be, the military.” 

Pretty good summary of the left-right divide, I think, and it’show the two narratives are likely to unfold in the weeks and months ahead. 

The more interesting and potentially consequential divide on immigration is, in my opinion, on the right itself, particularly with the ramped-up deportation activity we can expect with the new legislation. 

In June, farm industry executives, Republican lawmakers and some of President Trump’s own economic advisers expressed concern to the president about the impact his sweeping roundups could have on workers in the agricultural, construction, hospitality and landscaping industries, the obvious spill-over impact being labor shortages, slower growth and other supply chain impacts. 

There are already reports of labor shortages on farms across the country, with some produce starting to pile up and rot as illegal workers, fearful of deportation,don’t show up for work. 

“70% of our workers are gone,” one sixth-generation farmer named Lisa Tate told Reuters in July. “If 70% of your workforce doesn’t show up, 70% of your crop doesn’t get picked and can go bad in one day.” 

I had a conversation with a friend of mine this spring before he headed back to Wisconsin for the summer. He’s a retired dairy industry executive, and while we’ve never talked politics at any length, I was curious to hear his impression of the president’s immigration efforts from his perspective in the farming and agriculture industries.  

“People make the argument that migrants are just a ‘cheap labor force’ being taken advantage of by their employees,” he said. “That’s not true. Just before I retired, I went out and personally talked to 40 of our largest dairy farmers. Thirty-eight of them had Hispanic workers, one had Eastern Europeans, and only one farm was completely employing homegrown Americans. They all made every attempt to hire locals, but the reality is that locals just did not want to do that type of work.”  

I understand the far-right’s feelings about immigration, particularly after years of the Biden administration’s disastrous border policy. But a secure border doesn’t have to translate to economic deterioration. In fact, a properly executed, common sense approach to immigration that secures the borders, removes criminals from our streets, and allows otherwise law-abiding, longtime workers to plant and pick crops, watch our kids, mow our lawns, and serve our meals would only help the economy. 

Before passage of his Big Beautiful Bill, President Trump expressed some flexibility in the execution of his deportation policy among certain immigrant-reliant industries, likely in response to Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Collins calling him in mid-June to express the concerns of farmers she was hearing from. 

At the time, President Trump posted that there are “very good, longtime workers” in the farming and hospitality industries and that “change is coming,” signaling a willingness to find a way to spare some critical long-time workers from deportation. 

Thankfully, the president reaffirmed that desire during the signing of his new bill on July 4, stating that his administration is working on legislation authorizing some migrants to stay in the country and keep working.  

He went on to say, “Serious radical-right people, who I also happen to like a lot, they may not be quite as happy. But they’ll understand.” 

I’m not sure Stephen Miller, Kristi Noem, and Tom Homan – President Trump’s most ardent, hardline immigration advisers – will “understand,” but laws of supply and demand would dictate they probably don’t have much of a choice.