El Niño Brought Record Warm Winter

Following a record-breaking hot summer this year, 2023 also brought an extraordinarily warm winter, one caused by this year's El Niño event, releasing a significant amount of heat into the atmosphere. This temperature increase further exacerbated the rapid rise in global surface temperatures. Unsurprisingly, because of climate change, over most of the US, there have been trends of less snowy winters. This doesn't mean that it never snows or that we cannot get big snowstorms, but that snowfall has gradually trended downward over time.

El Niño is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that marks the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. It is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including the area off the west coast of South America. El Niño causes the Pacific jet stream to move south and spread further east. During winter, this leads to wetter conditions than usual in the Southern U.S. and warmer and drier conditions in the North, hence warmer winters all around.

In addition to extremely warm temperatures and an increase in rain in the southern half of the United States, this phenomenon also meant a holiday with little to no snow for many. Many locations in the lower 48 states accustomed to a white Christmas awoke to bare ground and temperatures more typical of early spring. Snow cover was mostly depleted compared with normal snowfall near the U.S. - Canadian border, which is usually buried under a blanket of white at this time of year.

While it is no secret that global temperatures are rising as a result of global warming, the recent and severe uptick in temperatures has caused concern surrounding unusual weather patterns like the decrease in snow cover and this record-high temperature winter. Warmer than normal weather is expected to prevail not only in most of North America but also in Europe and Asia, much as it has throughout 2023, the hottest year on record for the planet.

Typically, snow cover numbers mark a sharp turnabout from early November, when it was around a record high for the time of year. According to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), this year’s snow cover exhibits a sharp contrast from last year at this time, when 44 percent of the country was blanketed in white. For many of the states affected by the decrease in snow cover, the lack of a white Christmas is the onset realization of rising global temperatures.

Here in Florida, NOAA and the National Weather Service in Miami reported each season in South Florida in 2023 (except for Fall in Ft. Lauderdale) ended up among the top ten warmest at each of four climate sites. The average temperatures for the year were two to three degrees above the 1991-2020 normal. No small feat considering each of the warmest six years on record has happened since 2015.

The Naples Municipal Airport had an average of 78.3 degrees fahrenheit, which was 2.8 fahrenheit above the 30-year norm and ranks as the warmest year on record (going back to 1942).

With 2023 nearing its end, it is on track to be the warmest year since records began in the mid-1800s. There's no doubt that if continued warming will cause more significant problems. Sea levels will rise as ice melts in the Arctic Circle, farmers will see reduced yields in crops as the temperature climbs, and certain regions will experience extreme weather events like snowless winters more frequently.