After writing about the Constitution and celebrating America's birthday, it's time to return to the history of markets and the financial industry.
The Roaring Twenties truly lived up to its name. New fashions, jazz music, speakeasies, wild dance crazes, and a stock market that seemed unstoppable kept America riding high. The nation was celebrating prosperity and living larger than ever before.
However, all that partying during the 1920s was about to produce one of the biggest economic hangovers in American history: the Great Depression of the 1930s.
What Made the Roaring Twenties So Prosperous?
World War I effectively ended with the Armistice on November 11, 1918, while the formal peace settlement followed with the signing of the Treaty of Versailles on June 28, 1919.
At the time, many people hoped the conflict would be "the war to end all wars," a phrase associated with H.G. Wells and later embraced by President Woodrow Wilson. As history would show, that hope did not last.
During the 1920s, the United States emerged as a dominant force in international trade and global business. The economy expanded rapidly, fueled by mass production, expanding electric power, and easy access to installment credit. For the first time, millions of Americans could purchase automobiles, radios, telephones, household appliances, and enjoy motion pictures.
The automobile played an especially important role because it did far more than transport people from place to place. It increased demand for steel, oil, glass, rubber, and road construction while accelerating the growth of suburban communities. At the same time, radios, movies, and telephone services created a faster, more connected, and entertainment-driven consumer culture.
If that sounds familiar, it should. The automobile transformed the economy during the 1920s much like today's technology boom is reshaping daily life and driving demand across countless industries.
Perhaps nowhere was the excitement greater than on Wall Street. Between 1920 and 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 500%. Investors increasingly viewed stocks as a sure path to wealth. Many purchased stocks on margin, putting down as little as 10% of the purchase price and borrowing the remainder.
As long as stock prices continued to rise, margin investing appeared to be easy money. However, borrowed money works both ways. It can amplify gains during rising markets, but it can also magnify losses when markets decline.
In short, the Roaring Twenties were prosperous because technological innovation, modern manufacturing, expanding credit, and a growing consumer economy helped make the United States the world's leading industrial power. Beneath the optimism, however, speculation and excessive borrowing were creating significant risks.
When the Roar Was Silenced
All that easy credit and margin borrowing eventually came with a steep price.
On October 23, 1929, selling pressure intensified during the final hour of trading. The next day, October 24, later known as Black Thursday, panic spread across Wall Street as investors rushed to sell their shares. A group of prominent bankers attempted to stabilize the market, and for a brief moment it appeared the crisis might pass.
It did not.
Selling accelerated again the following Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 13%. The next day, known as Black Tuesday, the market plunged another 12% as panic gripped investors across the country.
The stock market's seemingly unstoppable rise had come to an abrupt end.
What Happened Next?
The market crash of 1929 played a pivotal role in the onset of the Great Depression. By 1933, unemployment had risen to nearly 25%, leaving millions of Americans without work.
The effects of the crash lasted for decades. The Dow Jones Industrial Average did not return to its pre-crash high until November 1954, more than 25 years later.
The crisis also led to major regulatory reforms. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was created to help restore confidence in the banking system and reduce the risk of bank runs. The Banking Act of 1933, commonly known as the Glass-Steagall Act, separated commercial banking from investment banking activities to limit speculative risk with depositors' funds. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was also established to help protect investors and oversee the securities markets.
How Does This Impact Us Today?
Market volatility will always exist. In fact, periodic market declines and recessions are a healthy and necessary part of the economic cycle. Investors who lived through the financial crisis of 2008 experienced firsthand how challenging these periods can be.
Today, there are more safeguards in place and more tools available to the Federal Reserve and policymakers than existed in 1929. While these measures may help reduce the likelihood of a crisis on the same scale as the Great Depression, risk can never be eliminated.
Every investment and asset class carries some degree of risk. When markets have experienced a lengthy bull run, it becomes especially important to ensure your portfolio maintains the appropriate asset allocation. Do you own asset classes that may help provide protection during market downturns? Are you appropriately diversified for both opportunities and risks?
Investing is easy when markets are rising. The true value of a financial plan and a trusted advisor is often revealed during difficult markets.
I'll close with a quote often attributed to Mark Twain:
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes."
The lessons of the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression continue to remind us that periods of great optimism can create great opportunities, but they also require discipline, diversification, and respect for risk.
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